Skydrugz Corner: Emiten Yang Sudah Crash di 2022, Bagaimana Laba Mereka?
Artikel ini merupakan bagian dari kelanjutan riset saya mengenai pengaruh laporan keuangan terhadap apresiasi market. Dua tulisan sebelumnya antara lain:
- 1. Skydrugz Corner: Beli Saham Berdasarkan Laporan Keuangan Study Case SMDR
- 2. Skydrugz Corner: Beli Saham Berdasarkan Laporan Keuangan Part 2 GGRM Story
- 3. Skydrugz Corner: Saham Yang Bagger di 2022, Bagaimana Laba Mereka?
Saya terinspirasi melakukan riset terhadap hubungan laporan keuangan dengan apresiasi market karena terinspirasi dari:
- 1. William O’Neil
- 2. Howard Marks
- 3. Nicholas Darvas
- 4. Pat Dorsey
- 5. Peter Lynch
- 6. Benjamin Graham
Pada postingan sebelumnya saya bahas saham yang bagger. Pada postingan kali ini saya akan cek saham yang crash di 2022. Definisi crash yang saya gunakan adalah jika saham tersebut anjlok > 25% sejak awal tahun 2022. Dari sampling yang saya lakukan terhadap saham – saham IHSG hingga 6 Oktober 2022, saya menemukan ada 177 saham yang sudah crash anjlok >25% di 2022 year to date alias sejak 1 Januari 2022 hingga 6 Oktober 2022.
Ternyata jumlah saham yang anjlok jauh lebih banyak dari jumlah saham yang bagger. Benar – benar sesuai dengan Pareto Law.
Berikut list-nya:
| No | Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga |
| 1 | FLMC | -84.51% | – | -10.34 | 0.43 | 79 |
| 2 | TNCA | -84.24% | -4.11% | 0.42 | 4.08 | 480 |
| 3 | INCF | -78.26% | -79.92% | 0.346 | 0.6 | 60 |
| 4 | AYLS | -77.54% | -112.94% | -0.39 | 1.48 | 91 |
| 5 | BESS | -75.31% | -56.54% | 28.94 | 1.6 | 208 |
| 6 | POLL | -74.90% | -82.01% | 5.62 | 2.19 | 310 |
| 7 | UVCR | -72.89% | 192.17% | 3.08 | 3.01 | 122 |
| 8 | HDIT | -72.65% | 136.90% | 2.11 | 0.4 | 90 |
| 9 | UFOE | -71.57% | 14.40% | 5.49 | 5.71 | 482 |
| 10 | KJEN | -71.45% | 21.73% | -0.47 | 2.54 | 306 |
| 11 | KBLV | -70.00% | -2316.73% | -231.98 | 0.51 | 170 |
| 12 | DFAM | -69.79% | 12.31% | -9.84 | 3.54 | 117 |
| 13 | MPPA | -68.43% | -73.33% | -158.6 | 2.73 | 142 |
| 14 | MARI | -68.28% | -333.42% | -24.13 | 5.16 | 151 |
| 15 | AGRO | -68.23% | -41.34% | 15.38 | 5.45 | 600 |
| 16 | URBN | -67.41% | -48.47% | 7.63 | 0.58 | 188 |
| 17 | SWAT | -65.57% | -202.84% | -0.82 | 0.67 | 64 |
| 18 | LPIN | -65.45% | 19.00% | 12.31 | 0.6 | 408 |
| 19 | DGNS | -64.03% | -77.38% | 10.43 | 1.58 | 270 |
| 20 | BPTR | -63.86% | 38.84% | 5.16 | 1.12 | 180 |
| 21 | TOYS | -63.79% | 444.17% | 2.61 | 0.46 | 85 |
| 22 | BBYB | -63.69% | -360.22% | -611.44 | 4.2 | 960 |
| 23 | AKSI | -63.62% | 75.03% | 43.58 | 1.33 | 314 |
| 24 | MLPL | -62.97% | 135.07% | 78.52 | 0.51 | 141 |
| 25 | FITT | -61.18% | -0.80% | -3.85 | 3.85 | 197 |
| 26 | PTDU | -60.00% | -150.54% | -11.88 | 1.43 | 75 |
| 27 | ASSA | -59.49% | 58.05% | 114.79 | 2.79 | 1335 |
| 28 | BGTG | -59.23% | 59.18% | 5.58 | 0.71 | 95 |
| 29 | SAMF | -59.09% | 162.60% | 140.64 | 2.58 | 448 |
| 30 | TELE | -58.68% | -100.85% | -118.71 | -0.08 | 50 |
| 31 | MSKY | -58.33% | 1.18% | -95.01 | 1.05 | 248 |
| 32 | WIFI | -57.43% | -0.82% | 17.64 | 0.9 | 228 |
| 33 | ARTO | -57.34% | 161.82% | 28.92 | 11.43 | 6875 |
| 34 | DMMX | -56.80% | -91.26% | 10.13 | 9.7 | 1175 |
| 35 | INAF | -56.50% | -9377.64% | -90.72 | 7.2 | 965 |
| 36 | APEX | -56.47% | 19.66% | 31.95 | 0.52 | 370 |
| 37 | BPFI | -56.25% | 70.19% | 26.71 | 1.76 | 630 |
| 38 | BACA | -55.64% | -20.44% | 9.23 | 0.42 | 116 |
| 39 | INPS | -55.03% | -67.77% | -5.84 | 6.04 | 850 |
| 40 | JAST | -54.55% | -42.68% | -8.56 | 1.34 | 99 |
| 41 | MTPS | -54.13% | 86.91% | -6.22 | 1.03 | 50 |
| 42 | BNBA | -52.78% | -37.35% | 26.4 | 1.89 | 1535 |
| 43 | MASA | -52.51% | 43.03% | 817.63 | 5.18 | 2790 |
| 44 | ACES | -51.95% | -12.47% | 242.4 | 1.96 | 615 |
| 45 | LUCK | -51.89% | 440.78% | 0.408 | 0.94 | 186 |
| 46 | DIVA | -51.86% | -86.50% | 92.07 | 0.68 | 985 |
| 47 | BOLA | -51.80% | -69.02% | 22.33 | 2.6 | 298 |
| 48 | POLA | -51.58% | 52.60% | -2.05 | 1.23 | 91 |
| 49 | DIGI | -51.46% | -19.52% | -11.51 | 27.19 | 50 |
| 50 | SLIS | -51.25% | 10.05% | 15.05 | 3.56 | 388 |
| 51 | JSKY | -50.48% | -1142.99% | -72.77 | 0.66 | 52 |
| 52 | BAJA | -50.30% | -133.33% | -26.3 | 1.59 | 167 |
| 53 | SRAJ | -49.68% | -115.46% | -24 | 0.98 | 150 |
| 54 | CSIS | -49.67% | -21.80% | 2.78 | 0.66 | 75 |
| 55 | ATIC | -49.50% | 329.87% | 97.53 | -20.98 | 402 |
| 56 | KAEF | -49.18% | -456.11% | -205.12 | 0.95 | 1240 |
| 57 | FPNI | -49.14% | -84.97% | 19.3 | 0.83 | 220 |
| 58 | CBMF | -48.98% | -65.02% | 0.393 | 0.37 | 50 |
| 59 | JAWA | -48.89% | -80.60% | -89.39 | 2.41 | 137 |
| 60 | ASMI | -48.88% | -549.08% | -56.75 | 3.03 | 132 |
| 61 | WEHA | -48.74% | 191.03% | 6.06 | 1.33 | 105 |
| 62 | PRIM | -48.50% | -83.28% | 10.56 | 0.72 | 202 |
| 63 | LMAS | -48.45% | 85.34% | -0.94 | 0.65 | 50 |
| 64 | IPTV | -48.21% | -27.11% | 118.56 | 0.47 | 87 |
| 65 | TIRT | -48.21% | 61.16% | -39.01 | -0.11 | 60 |
| 66 | RUNS | -48.19% | 102.39% | 0.105 | 2.07 | 154 |
| 67 | INOV | -48.15% | -184.22% | -6.66 | 0.77 | 141 |
| 68 | ECII | -47.94% | -27.34% | 10.22 | 0.48 | 520 |
| 69 | KREN | -47.92% | 76.83% | -28.82 | 2.37 | 50 |
| 70 | IFSH | -47.90% | -0.08% | 44.22 | 3.54 | 1090 |
| 71 | GSMF | -47.20% | 501.15% | 3.13 | 0.49 | 85 |
| 72 | BBHI | -46.69% | 556.93% | 150.62 | 7.31 | 2140 |
| 73 | SMKL | -46.15% | 45.66% | 59.57 | 1.09 | 280 |
| 74 | GLOB | -45.79% | -62.39% | 0.531 | -0.15 | 116 |
| 75 | BIKA | -45.20% | -256.27% | -13.91 | -4.37 | 134 |
| 76 | TRUE | -44.55% | -89.53% | 1.56 | 1.19 | 57 |
| 77 | REAL | -44.44% | -64.21% | 0.226 | 0.94 | 50 |
| 78 | ATAP | -44.20% | -95.35% | 0.194 | 1.61 | 102 |
| 79 | MTSM | -44.19% | -102.03% | -4.61 | 1.05 | 172 |
| 80 | PRDA | -44.02% | -46.92% | 159.79 | 2.36 | 5150 |
| 81 | MARK | -43.72% | 32.14% | 205.09 | 3.04 | 590 |
| 82 | PEGE | -43.59% | -327.92% | -53.4 | 5.42 | 665 |
| 83 | IDEA | -43.52% | -88.25% | 0.339 | 1.05 | 59 |
| 84 | PGLI | -43.50% | 386.24% | 14.05 | 1.5 | 314 |
| 85 | TGRA | -43.33% | 40.07% | -1.74 | 0.45 | 50 |
| 86 | BKSW | -43.23% | 109.07% | 52.47 | 0.55 | 110 |
| 87 | ROCK | -42.98% | -81.52% | 0.525 | 0.76 | 418 |
| 88 | NICK | -42.67% | -108.28% | -5 | 0.91 | 424 |
| 89 | OMRE | -42.49% | 18.60% | -77.88 | 0.26 | 484 |
| 90 | KARW | -42.34% | 124.44% | 4.34 | -0.09 | 79 |
| 91 | TRJA | -42.15% | 19.21% | 20.51 | 1.16 | 252 |
| 92 | JAYA | -42.05% | -3.13% | 3.06 | 0.77 | 113 |
| 93 | CANI | -42.00% | -7.03% | -33.22 | -0.19 | 87 |
| 94 | NPGF | -41.76% | -151.89% | -2.39 | 0.82 | 53 |
| 95 | DGIK | -41.62% | -4149.44% | -7.31 | 1.05 | 115 |
| 96 | CASH | -41.11% | -78.23% | -9.31 | 2.58 | 163 |
| 97 | AGRS | -40.88% | 374.09% | 40.58 | 0.9 | 94 |
| 98 | MOLI | -40.19% | -137.09% | -5.22 | 0.55 | 258 |
| 99 | PTIS | -39.89% | 1743.74% | 3.46 | 0.49 | 234 |
| 100 | ARCI | -39.82% | -55.55% | 210.6 | 2.3 | 342 |
| 101 | DNAR | -39.73% | 3.92% | 5.14 | 0.81 | 173 |
| 102 | BBKP | -39.63% | -2146.59% | -3324.73 | 1.13 | 163 |
| 103 | IRRA | -39.49% | -29.48% | 35.78 | 3.81 | 1155 |
| 104 | AIMS | -38.81% | 391.24% | 2.49 | 3.03 | 242 |
| 105 | BVIC | -38.73% | 119.88% | 71.12 | 0.4 | 126 |
| 106 | FIRE | -38.43% | -272.43% | -15.6 | 1.43 | 264 |
| 107 | ALTO | -37.86% | 93.61% | -0.23 | 1.05 | 168 |
| 108 | BABP | -37.63% | 629.21% | 34.88 | 1.53 | 117 |
| 109 | WOOD | -37.50% | 36.75% | 299.89 | 0.86 | 555 |
| 110 | INPP | -37.23% | 172.47% | 8.46 | 0.88 | 408 |
| 111 | KOTA | -36.71% | -34.38% | -16.48 | 0.42 | 50 |
| 112 | IMJS | -36.67% | 353.68% | 115.63 | 0.62 | 270 |
| 113 | SBMA | -36.67% | 690.87% | 4.1 | 1.17 | 264 |
| 114 | SIPD | -36.25% | -329.66% | -67.86 | 1.99 | 1270 |
| 115 | DART | -36.22% | -7.07% | -215.09 | 0.27 | 197 |
| 116 | ESTI | -36.21% | -56.71% | 3.99 | 0.68 | 74 |
| 117 | PSDN | -35.95% | 72.88% | -11.57 | -3.39 | 101 |
| 118 | ARGO | -35.87% | -54.52% | -22.89 | -0.26 | 1055 |
| 119 | CTBN | -35.83% | 33.78% | -21.78 | 0.94 | 1680 |
| 120 | RANC | -35.83% | -395.06% | -51.05 | 3.99 | 1075 |
| 121 | BUKA | -35.81% | 1221.52% | 8593.49 | 0.88 | 280 |
| 122 | UANG | -35.80% | -61.75% | -52.33 | -49.99 | 520 |
| 123 | PCAR | -35.46% | 211.81% | 2.96 | 3.18 | 198 |
| 124 | PURE | -35.44% | 11.13% | -69.25 | 10.01 | 51 |
| 125 | HOMI | -35.42% | 7.43% | 0.673 | 6.86 | 492 |
| 126 | RBMS | -35.37% | -62.88% | -25.44 | 0.27 | 52 |
| 127 | OILS | -35.29% | 324.84% | 8.59 | 1.17 | 220 |
| 128 | CPRO | -34.74% | 260.26% | 191.08 | 1.21 | 63 |
| 129 | MLPT | -34.47% | 235.66% | 296.5 | 4.99 | 2430 |
| 130 | POLI | -34.24% | 816.29% | 170.68 | 1.03 | 1000 |
| 131 | SONA | -33.70% | 9.36% | -49.61 | 2.01 | 3630 |
| 132 | BLTZ | -33.53% | 88.57% | -19.21 | 3.82 | 2240 |
| 133 | ZINC | -33.33% | -63.55% | 32.83 | 1.96 | 71 |
| 134 | SCMA | -33.13% | -15.25% | 616.44 | 2.2 | 226 |
| 135 | INPC | -33.07% | 91.19% | 39.84 | 0.43 | 86 |
| 136 | SOFA | -32.61% | -349.80% | -2.26 | 1.24 | 31 |
| 137 | PTSP | -32.14% | 141.70% | 4.1 | 9.4 | 4750 |
| 138 | ALDO | -32.00% | 30.80% | 39.31 | 1.22 | 665 |
| 139 | MITI | -31.90% | 30.35% | 3.93 | 3.35 | 157 |
| 140 | BIMA | -31.71% | 49.14% | -9.88 | -120.38 | 168 |
| 141 | BEBS | -31.57% | 104.97% | 82.2 | 50.1 | 4020 |
| 142 | TOBA | -31.36% | 63.69% | 515.32 | 1.27 | 755 |
| 143 | NASI | -31.25% | – | 0.458 | 2.11 | 157 |
| 144 | YELO | -31.11% | 38.15% | 5.12 | 0.6 | 93 |
| 145 | BMHS | -30.72% | -60.34% | 53.46 | 3.08 | 565 |
| 146 | BULL | -30.67% | -233.96% | -222.03 | 1.55 | 169 |
| 147 | BCIC | -30.58% | 105.32% | 15.72 | 0.99 | 145 |
| 148 | KICI | -30.56% | -83.15% | 2.12 | 0.5 | 198 |
| 149 | PRAS | -30.31% | -669.22% | -31.88 | 0.27 | 175 |
| 150 | LFLO | -30.21% | -21.98% | 0.951 | 2.11 | 64 |
| 151 | AMOR | -29.95% | 18.92% | 118.47 | 9.41 | 1305 |
| 152 | PBRX | -29.22% | -70.23% | 50.33 | 0.16 | 102 |
| 153 | ESIP | -29.13% | 2037.45% | 1.82 | 0.84 | 72 |
| 154 | AMIN | -28.95% | 103.28% | 2.07 | 0.98 | 135 |
| 155 | BANK | -28.82% | -2477.44% | -80.78 | 11.15 | 1625 |
| 156 | BRAM | -28.80% | 38.50% | 217.34 | 1.29 | 9325 |
| 157 | EMTK | -28.73% | 922.33% | 2704.9 | 3.04 | 1665 |
| 158 | ISSP | -28.64% | -24.94% | 190.8 | 0.52 | 286 |
| 159 | SSIA | -28.51% | 2.66% | -75.97 | 0.46 | 350 |
| 160 | UNIQ | -28.41% | 50.20% | -10 | 0.6 | 62 |
| 161 | SAPX | -28.29% | -52.04% | 8.46 | 4.25 | 900 |
| 162 | BCIP | -28.26% | 608.40% | 7.23 | 0.21 | 65 |
| 163 | SMRA | -28.14% | 134.57% | 254.61 | 1.11 | 600 |
| 164 | BSIM | -28.00% | 194.50% | 148.24 | 1.74 | 625 |
| 165 | MYTX | -27.71% | 379.95% | 62.86 | -7.36 | 62 |
| 166 | TRUK | -27.61% | 33.90% | -1.92 | 0.9 | 119 |
| 167 | SOSS | -27.37% | 14.68% | 8.03 | 1.05 | 282 |
| 168 | HOPE | -27.06% | 106.64% | 0.359 | 1.09 | 61 |
| 169 | MGLV | -26.73% | 342.08% | 10.12 | 2.71 | 151 |
| 170 | ERAA | -26.33% | -9.14% | 507.52 | 1.12 | 434 |
| 171 | GGRM | -26.06% | -58.62% | 956.14 | 0.78 | 22800 |
| 172 | BMAS | -25.72% | 48.88% | 56.37 | 4.13 | 1285 |
| 173 | DAYA | -25.66% | 79.58% | -4.49 | 8.11 | 228 |
| 174 | GGRP | -25.64% | 25.70% | 413.61 | 0.61 | 570 |
| 175 | LMPI | -25.64% | 19.02% | -8.94 | 0.67 | 147 |
| 176 | LPKR | -25.53% | -358.47% | -1205.96 | 0.42 | 103 |
| 177 | WMUU | -25.49% | -15.76% | 74.45 | 1.14 | 114 |
Padahal per 5 Oktober 2022 ada 810 saham yang listing di IDX.
Artinya ada 177/810 x 100% = 21,8% penghuni IHSG yang sudah crash hingga 2022. Bandingkan dengan hanya 4,8% penghuni IHSG yang bisa bagger hingga Oktober 2022. Sesuai dengan Pareto Law kurang dari 20% saja saham yang berkontribusi pada Capital Gain terbesar di bursa.
Mayoritas emiten hanya jadi beban IHSG.
Apa Saja Karakteristiknya?
Saya ikuti saja panduan dari William O’Neil, mayoritas saham yang bagger memiliki ciri utama adanya peningkatan EPS >20%.
Sekarang apakah saham yang crash anjlok lebih dari 25% dalam tahun berjalan melakukan hal yang sebaliknya?
Mari kita cek pada 177 saham ini.
Laba Anjlok? Wajar Saham Anjlok
| No | Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga |
| 3 | ESIP | -29.13% | 2037.45% | 1.82 | 0.84 | 72 |
| 4 | PTIS | -39.89% | 1743.74% | 3.46 | 0.49 | 234 |
| 5 | BUKA | -35.81% | 1221.52% | 8593.49 | 0.88 | 280 |
| 6 | EMTK | -28.73% | 922.33% | 2704.9 | 3.04 | 1665 |
| 7 | POLI | -34.24% | 816.29% | 170.68 | 1.03 | 1000 |
| 8 | SBMA | -36.67% | 690.87% | 4.1 | 1.17 | 264 |
| 9 | BABP | -37.63% | 629.21% | 34.88 | 1.53 | 117 |
| 10 | BCIP | -28.26% | 608.40% | 7.23 | 0.21 | 65 |
| 11 | BBHI | -46.69% | 556.93% | 150.62 | 7.31 | 2140 |
| 12 | GSMF | -47.20% | 501.15% | 3.13 | 0.49 | 85 |
| 13 | TOYS | -63.79% | 444.17% | 2.61 | 0.46 | 85 |
| 14 | LUCK | -51.89% | 440.78% | 0.408 | 0.94 | 186 |
| 15 | AIMS | -38.81% | 391.24% | 2.49 | 3.03 | 242 |
| 16 | PGLI | -43.50% | 386.24% | 14.05 | 1.5 | 314 |
| 17 | MYTX | -27.71% | 379.95% | 62.86 | -7.36 | 62 |
| 18 | AGRS | -40.88% | 374.09% | 40.58 | 0.9 | 94 |
| 19 | IMJS | -36.67% | 353.68% | 115.63 | 0.62 | 270 |
| 20 | MGLV | -26.73% | 342.08% | 10.12 | 2.71 | 151 |
| 21 | ATIC | -49.50% | 329.87% | 97.53 | -20.98 | 402 |
| 22 | OILS | -35.29% | 324.84% | 8.59 | 1.17 | 220 |
| 23 | CPRO | -34.74% | 260.26% | 191.08 | 1.21 | 63 |
| 24 | MLPT | -34.47% | 235.66% | 296.5 | 4.99 | 2430 |
| 25 | PCAR | -35.46% | 211.81% | 2.96 | 3.18 | 198 |
| 26 | BSIM | -28.00% | 194.50% | 148.24 | 1.74 | 625 |
| 27 | UVCR | -72.89% | 192.17% | 3.08 | 3.01 | 122 |
| 28 | WEHA | -48.74% | 191.03% | 6.06 | 1.33 | 105 |
| 29 | INPP | -37.23% | 172.47% | 8.46 | 0.88 | 408 |
| 30 | SAMF | -59.09% | 162.60% | 140.64 | 2.58 | 448 |
| 31 | ARTO | -57.34% | 161.82% | 28.92 | 11.43 | 6875 |
| 32 | PTSP | -32.14% | 141.70% | 4.1 | 9.4 | 4750 |
| 33 | HDIT | -72.65% | 136.90% | 2.11 | 0.4 | 90 |
| 34 | MLPL | -62.97% | 135.07% | 78.52 | 0.51 | 141 |
| 35 | SMRA | -28.14% | 134.57% | 254.61 | 1.11 | 600 |
| 36 | KARW | -42.34% | 124.44% | 4.34 | -0.09 | 79 |
| 37 | BVIC | -38.73% | 119.88% | 71.12 | 0.4 | 126 |
| 38 | BKSW | -43.23% | 109.07% | 52.47 | 0.55 | 110 |
| 39 | HOPE | -27.06% | 106.64% | 0.359 | 1.09 | 61 |
| 40 | BCIC | -30.58% | 105.32% | 15.72 | 0.99 | 145 |
| 41 | BEBS | -31.57% | 104.97% | 82.2 | 50.1 | 4020 |
| 42 | AMIN | -28.95% | 103.28% | 2.07 | 0.98 | 135 |
| 43 | RUNS | -48.19% | 102.39% | 0.105 | 2.07 | 154 |
| 44 | ALTO | -37.86% | 93.61% | -0.23 | 1.05 | 168 |
| 45 | INPC | -33.07% | 91.19% | 39.84 | 0.43 | 86 |
| 46 | BLTZ | -33.53% | 88.57% | -19.21 | 3.82 | 2240 |
| 47 | MTPS | -54.13% | 86.91% | -6.22 | 1.03 | 50 |
| 48 | LMAS | -48.45% | 85.34% | -0.94 | 0.65 | 50 |
| 49 | DAYA | -25.66% | 79.58% | -4.49 | 8.11 | 228 |
| 50 | KREN | -47.92% | 76.83% | -28.82 | 2.37 | 50 |
| 51 | AKSI | -63.62% | 75.03% | 43.58 | 1.33 | 314 |
| 52 | PSDN | -35.95% | 72.88% | -11.57 | -3.39 | 101 |
| 53 | BPFI | -56.25% | 70.19% | 26.71 | 1.76 | 630 |
| 54 | TOBA | -31.36% | 63.69% | 515.32 | 1.27 | 755 |
| 55 | TIRT | -48.21% | 61.16% | -39.01 | -0.11 | 60 |
| 56 | BGTG | -59.23% | 59.18% | 5.58 | 0.71 | 95 |
| 57 | ASSA | -59.49% | 58.05% | 114.79 | 2.79 | 1335 |
| 58 | POLA | -51.58% | 52.60% | -2.05 | 1.23 | 91 |
| 59 | UNIQ | -28.41% | 50.20% | -10 | 0.6 | 62 |
| 60 | BIMA | -31.71% | 49.14% | -9.88 | -120.38 | 168 |
| 61 | BMAS | -25.72% | 48.88% | 56.37 | 4.13 | 1285 |
| 62 | SMKL | -46.15% | 45.66% | 59.57 | 1.09 | 280 |
| 63 | MASA | -52.51% | 43.03% | 817.63 | 5.18 | 2790 |
| 64 | TGRA | -43.33% | 40.07% | -1.74 | 0.45 | 50 |
| 65 | BPTR | -63.86% | 38.84% | 5.16 | 1.12 | 180 |
| 66 | BRAM | -28.80% | 38.50% | 217.34 | 1.29 | 9325 |
| 67 | YELO | -31.11% | 38.15% | 5.12 | 0.6 | 93 |
| 68 | WOOD | -37.50% | 36.75% | 299.89 | 0.86 | 555 |
| 69 | TRUK | -27.61% | 33.90% | -1.92 | 0.9 | 119 |
| 70 | CTBN | -35.83% | 33.78% | -21.78 | 0.94 | 1680 |
| 71 | MARK | -43.72% | 32.14% | 205.09 | 3.04 | 590 |
| 72 | ALDO | -32.00% | 30.80% | 39.31 | 1.22 | 665 |
| 73 | MITI | -31.90% | 30.35% | 3.93 | 3.35 | 157 |
| 74 | GGRP | -25.64% | 25.70% | 413.61 | 0.61 | 570 |
| 75 | KJEN | -71.45% | 21.73% | -0.47 | 2.54 | 306 |
| 76 | APEX | -56.47% | 19.66% | 31.95 | 0.52 | 370 |
| 77 | TRJA | -42.15% | 19.21% | 20.51 | 1.16 | 252 |
| 78 | LMPI | -25.64% | 19.02% | -8.94 | 0.67 | 147 |
| 79 | LPIN | -65.45% | 19.00% | 12.31 | 0.6 | 408 |
| 80 | AMOR | -29.95% | 18.92% | 118.47 | 9.41 | 1305 |
| 81 | OMRE | -42.49% | 18.60% | -77.88 | 0.26 | 484 |
| 82 | SOSS | -27.37% | 14.68% | 8.03 | 1.05 | 282 |
| 83 | UFOE | -71.57% | 14.40% | 5.49 | 5.71 | 482 |
| 84 | DFAM | -69.79% | 12.31% | -9.84 | 3.54 | 117 |
| 85 | PURE | -35.44% | 11.13% | -69.25 | 10.01 | 51 |
| 86 | SLIS | -51.25% | 10.05% | 15.05 | 3.56 | 388 |
| 87 | SONA | -33.70% | 9.36% | -49.61 | 2.01 | 3630 |
| 88 | HOMI | -35.42% | 7.43% | 0.673 | 6.86 | 492 |
| 89 | DNAR | -39.73% | 3.92% | 5.14 | 0.81 | 173 |
| 90 | SSIA | -28.51% | 2.66% | -75.97 | 0.46 | 350 |
| 91 | MSKY | -58.33% | 1.18% | -95.01 | 1.05 | 248 |
Dari tabel ini kita bisa lihat bahwa 177 saham yang crash di 2022 ada 86 saham memiliki ciri yang sama yaitu labanya anjlok. Ada 2 saham yang baru listing yakni FLMC dan NASI, belum ketahuan kenaikan labanya Q2 2021 vs Q2 2022. Jadi secara umum 86 dari 177 saham atau 48% saham yang crash di 2022 memiliki ciri yang sama yakni laba anjlok.
Peter Lynch mengatakan bahwa fast Grower idealnya memiliki pertumbuhan laba >20%
Jadi kalau laba anjlok >20% maka itu adalah high road to crash.
Cuma memang agak anomali. Karena Thesis awal saya adalah laba anjlok maka wajar saja kalau harga saham anjlok. Saya pikir populasi saham yang crash sekitar >50% akan berisi saham yang labanya anjlok. Ternyata saya salah.
Nah dari 177 saham yang crash ini mana kah yang labanya naik? Lalu mari kita cek mengapa bisa laba naik tapi malah sahamnya anjlok? Apakah karena laba naik tapi masih rugi alias rugi berkurang karena masih on the way to turnaround? Apakah Laba naik, tapi valuasi masih mahal alias PBV > 1,5? Ataukah laba naik, valuasi murah, cashflow oke, utang mini, cuma belum diapresiasi market alias hidden gems? Mari kita cek.
Perusahaan Laba Naik Tapi Tetap Crash
| No | Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga |
| 1 | ESIP | -29.13% | 2037.45% | 1.82 | 0.84 | 72 |
| 2 | PTIS | -39.89% | 1743.74% | 3.46 | 0.49 | 234 |
| 3 | BUKA | -35.81% | 1221.52% | 8593.49 | 0.88 | 280 |
| 4 | EMTK | -28.73% | 922.33% | 2704.9 | 3.04 | 1665 |
| 5 | POLI | -34.24% | 816.29% | 170.68 | 1.03 | 1000 |
| 6 | SBMA | -36.67% | 690.87% | 4.1 | 1.17 | 264 |
| 7 | BABP | -37.63% | 629.21% | 34.88 | 1.53 | 117 |
| 8 | BCIP | -28.26% | 608.40% | 7.23 | 0.21 | 65 |
| 9 | BBHI | -46.69% | 556.93% | 150.62 | 7.31 | 2140 |
| 10 | GSMF | -47.20% | 501.15% | 3.13 | 0.49 | 85 |
| 11 | TOYS | -63.79% | 444.17% | 2.61 | 0.46 | 85 |
| 12 | LUCK | -51.89% | 440.78% | 0.408 | 0.94 | 186 |
| 13 | AIMS | -38.81% | 391.24% | 2.49 | 3.03 | 242 |
| 14 | PGLI | -43.50% | 386.24% | 14.05 | 1.5 | 314 |
| 15 | MYTX | -27.71% | 379.95% | 62.86 | -7.36 | 62 |
| 16 | AGRS | -40.88% | 374.09% | 40.58 | 0.9 | 94 |
| 17 | IMJS | -36.67% | 353.68% | 115.63 | 0.62 | 270 |
| 18 | MGLV | -26.73% | 342.08% | 10.12 | 2.71 | 151 |
| 19 | ATIC | -49.50% | 329.87% | 97.53 | -20.98 | 402 |
| 20 | OILS | -35.29% | 324.84% | 8.59 | 1.17 | 220 |
| 21 | CPRO | -34.74% | 260.26% | 191.08 | 1.21 | 63 |
| 22 | MLPT | -34.47% | 235.66% | 296.5 | 4.99 | 2430 |
| 23 | PCAR | -35.46% | 211.81% | 2.96 | 3.18 | 198 |
| 24 | BSIM | -28.00% | 194.50% | 148.24 | 1.74 | 625 |
| 25 | UVCR | -72.89% | 192.17% | 3.08 | 3.01 | 122 |
| 26 | WEHA | -48.74% | 191.03% | 6.06 | 1.33 | 105 |
| 27 | INPP | -37.23% | 172.47% | 8.46 | 0.88 | 408 |
| 28 | SAMF | -59.09% | 162.60% | 140.64 | 2.58 | 448 |
| 29 | ARTO | -57.34% | 161.82% | 28.92 | 11.43 | 6875 |
| 30 | PTSP | -32.14% | 141.70% | 4.1 | 9.4 | 4750 |
| 31 | HDIT | -72.65% | 136.90% | 2.11 | 0.4 | 90 |
| 32 | MLPL | -62.97% | 135.07% | 78.52 | 0.51 | 141 |
| 33 | SMRA | -28.14% | 134.57% | 254.61 | 1.11 | 600 |
| 34 | KARW | -42.34% | 124.44% | 4.34 | -0.09 | 79 |
| 35 | BVIC | -38.73% | 119.88% | 71.12 | 0.4 | 126 |
| 36 | BKSW | -43.23% | 109.07% | 52.47 | 0.55 | 110 |
| 37 | HOPE | -27.06% | 106.64% | 0.359 | 1.09 | 61 |
| 38 | BCIC | -30.58% | 105.32% | 15.72 | 0.99 | 145 |
| 39 | BEBS | -31.57% | 104.97% | 82.2 | 50.1 | 4020 |
| 40 | AMIN | -28.95% | 103.28% | 2.07 | 0.98 | 135 |
| 41 | RUNS | -48.19% | 102.39% | 0.105 | 2.07 | 154 |
| 42 | ALTO | -37.86% | 93.61% | -0.23 | 1.05 | 168 |
| 43 | INPC | -33.07% | 91.19% | 39.84 | 0.43 | 86 |
| 44 | BLTZ | -33.53% | 88.57% | -19.21 | 3.82 | 2240 |
| 45 | MTPS | -54.13% | 86.91% | -6.22 | 1.03 | 50 |
| 46 | LMAS | -48.45% | 85.34% | -0.94 | 0.65 | 50 |
| 47 | DAYA | -25.66% | 79.58% | -4.49 | 8.11 | 228 |
| 48 | KREN | -47.92% | 76.83% | -28.82 | 2.37 | 50 |
| 49 | AKSI | -63.62% | 75.03% | 43.58 | 1.33 | 314 |
| 50 | PSDN | -35.95% | 72.88% | -11.57 | -3.39 | 101 |
| 51 | BPFI | -56.25% | 70.19% | 26.71 | 1.76 | 630 |
| 52 | TOBA | -31.36% | 63.69% | 515.32 | 1.27 | 755 |
| 53 | TIRT | -48.21% | 61.16% | -39.01 | -0.11 | 60 |
| 54 | BGTG | -59.23% | 59.18% | 5.58 | 0.71 | 95 |
| 55 | ASSA | -59.49% | 58.05% | 114.79 | 2.79 | 1335 |
| 56 | POLA | -51.58% | 52.60% | -2.05 | 1.23 | 91 |
| 57 | UNIQ | -28.41% | 50.20% | -10 | 0.6 | 62 |
| 58 | BIMA | -31.71% | 49.14% | -9.88 | -120.38 | 168 |
| 59 | BMAS | -25.72% | 48.88% | 56.37 | 4.13 | 1285 |
| 60 | SMKL | -46.15% | 45.66% | 59.57 | 1.09 | 280 |
| 61 | MASA | -52.51% | 43.03% | 817.63 | 5.18 | 2790 |
| 62 | TGRA | -43.33% | 40.07% | -1.74 | 0.45 | 50 |
| 63 | BPTR | -63.86% | 38.84% | 5.16 | 1.12 | 180 |
| 64 | BRAM | -28.80% | 38.50% | 217.34 | 1.29 | 9325 |
| 65 | YELO | -31.11% | 38.15% | 5.12 | 0.6 | 93 |
| 66 | WOOD | -37.50% | 36.75% | 299.89 | 0.86 | 555 |
| 67 | TRUK | -27.61% | 33.90% | -1.92 | 0.9 | 119 |
| 68 | CTBN | -35.83% | 33.78% | -21.78 | 0.94 | 1680 |
| 69 | MARK | -43.72% | 32.14% | 205.09 | 3.04 | 590 |
| 70 | ALDO | -32.00% | 30.80% | 39.31 | 1.22 | 665 |
| 71 | MITI | -31.90% | 30.35% | 3.93 | 3.35 | 157 |
| 72 | GGRP | -25.64% | 25.70% | 413.61 | 0.61 | 570 |
| 73 | KJEN | -71.45% | 21.73% | -0.47 | 2.54 | 306 |
| 74 | APEX | -56.47% | 19.66% | 31.95 | 0.52 | 370 |
| 75 | TRJA | -42.15% | 19.21% | 20.51 | 1.16 | 252 |
| 76 | LMPI | -25.64% | 19.02% | -8.94 | 0.67 | 147 |
| 77 | LPIN | -65.45% | 19.00% | 12.31 | 0.6 | 408 |
| 78 | AMOR | -29.95% | 18.92% | 118.47 | 9.41 | 1305 |
| 79 | OMRE | -42.49% | 18.60% | -77.88 | 0.26 | 484 |
| 80 | SOSS | -27.37% | 14.68% | 8.03 | 1.05 | 282 |
| 81 | UFOE | -71.57% | 14.40% | 5.49 | 5.71 | 482 |
| 82 | DFAM | -69.79% | 12.31% | -9.84 | 3.54 | 117 |
| 83 | PURE | -35.44% | 11.13% | -69.25 | 10.01 | 51 |
| 84 | SLIS | -51.25% | 10.05% | 15.05 | 3.56 | 388 |
| 85 | SONA | -33.70% | 9.36% | -49.61 | 2.01 | 3630 |
| 86 | HOMI | -35.42% | 7.43% | 0.673 | 6.86 | 492 |
| 87 | DNAR | -39.73% | 3.92% | 5.14 | 0.81 | 173 |
| 88 | SSIA | -28.51% | 2.66% | -75.97 | 0.46 | 350 |
| 89 | MSKY | -58.33% | 1.18% | -95.01 | 1.05 | 248 |
Total ada 89 dari 177 saham yang labanya naik tapi harga saham tetap crash atau sekitar 50,28%. Ini justru yang jadi mayoritas.
Laba Naik Tapi Masih Rugi alias Rugi Berkurang atau On The Way to Turnaround
| No | Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga |
| 1 | ALTO | -37.86% | 93.61% | -0.23 | 1.05 | 168 |
| 2 | BLTZ | -33.53% | 88.57% | -19.21 | 3.82 | 2240 |
| 3 | MTPS | -54.13% | 86.91% | -6.22 | 1.03 | 50 |
| 4 | LMAS | -48.45% | 85.34% | -0.94 | 0.65 | 50 |
| 5 | DAYA | -25.66% | 79.58% | -4.49 | 8.11 | 228 |
| 6 | KREN | -47.92% | 76.83% | -28.82 | 2.37 | 50 |
| 7 | PSDN | -35.95% | 72.88% | -11.57 | -3.39 | 101 |
| 8 | TIRT | -48.21% | 61.16% | -39.01 | -0.11 | 60 |
| 9 | POLA | -51.58% | 52.60% | -2.05 | 1.23 | 91 |
| 10 | UNIQ | -28.41% | 50.20% | -10 | 0.6 | 62 |
| 11 | BIMA | -31.71% | 49.14% | -9.88 | -120.38 | 168 |
| 12 | TGRA | -43.33% | 40.07% | -1.74 | 0.45 | 50 |
| 13 | TRUK | -27.61% | 33.90% | -1.92 | 0.9 | 119 |
| 14 | CTBN | -35.83% | 33.78% | -21.78 | 0.94 | 1680 |
| 15 | KJEN | -71.45% | 21.73% | -0.47 | 2.54 | 306 |
| 16 | LMPI | -25.64% | 19.02% | -8.94 | 0.67 | 147 |
| 17 | OMRE | -42.49% | 18.60% | -77.88 | 0.26 | 484 |
| 18 | DFAM | -69.79% | 12.31% | -9.84 | 3.54 | 117 |
| 19 | PURE | -35.44% | 11.13% | -69.25 | 10.01 | 51 |
| 20 | SONA | -33.70% | 9.36% | -49.61 | 2.01 | 3630 |
| 21 | SSIA | -28.51% | 2.66% | -75.97 | 0.46 | 350 |
| 22 | MSKY | -58.33% | 1.18% | -95.01 | 1.05 | 248 |
Ternyata ada 22 emiten yang labanya naik alias ruginya berkurang. Wajar saja market belum apresiasi saham – saham ini karena masih merugi. Namun setidaknya rugi perusahaan – perusahaan ini sudah berkurang jika dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya. On the way recovery.
Yang PBV-nya di bawah 1,5 antara lain:
| Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga |
| OMRE | -42.49% | 18.60% | -77.88 | 0.26 | 484 |
| TGRA | -43.33% | 40.07% | -1.74 | 0.45 | 50 |
| SSIA | -28.51% | 2.66% | -75.97 | 0.46 | 350 |
| UNIQ | -28.41% | 50.20% | -10 | 0.6 | 62 |
| LMAS | -48.45% | 85.34% | -0.94 | 0.65 | 50 |
| LMPI | -25.64% | 19.02% | -8.94 | 0.67 | 147 |
| TRUK | -27.61% | 33.90% | -1.92 | 0.9 | 119 |
| CTBN | -35.83% | 33.78% | -21.78 | 0.94 | 1680 |
| MTPS | -54.13% | 86.91% | -6.22 | 1.03 | 50 |
| ALTO | -37.86% | 93.61% | -0.23 | 1.05 | 168 |
| MSKY | -58.33% | 1.18% | -95.01 | 1.05 | 248 |
| POLA | -51.58% | 52.60% | -2.05 | 1.23 | 91 |
Menurut saya dari mereka semua yang menarik adalah OMRE dan SSIA
Laba Naik, Cetak Laba, Tapi Crash. Why?
| No | Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga |
| 1 | ESIP | -29.13% | 2037.45% | 1.82 | 0.84 | 72 |
| 2 | PTIS | -39.89% | 1743.74% | 3.46 | 0.49 | 234 |
| 3 | BUKA | -35.81% | 1221.52% | 8593.49 | 0.88 | 280 |
| 4 | EMTK | -28.73% | 922.33% | 2704.9 | 3.04 | 1665 |
| 5 | POLI | -34.24% | 816.29% | 170.68 | 1.03 | 1000 |
| 6 | SBMA | -36.67% | 690.87% | 4.1 | 1.17 | 264 |
| 7 | BABP | -37.63% | 629.21% | 34.88 | 1.53 | 117 |
| 8 | BCIP | -28.26% | 608.40% | 7.23 | 0.21 | 65 |
| 9 | BBHI | -46.69% | 556.93% | 150.62 | 7.31 | 2140 |
| 10 | GSMF | -47.20% | 501.15% | 3.13 | 0.49 | 85 |
| 11 | TOYS | -63.79% | 444.17% | 2.61 | 0.46 | 85 |
| 12 | LUCK | -51.89% | 440.78% | 0.408 | 0.94 | 186 |
| 13 | AIMS | -38.81% | 391.24% | 2.49 | 3.03 | 242 |
| 14 | PGLI | -43.50% | 386.24% | 14.05 | 1.5 | 314 |
| 15 | MYTX | -27.71% | 379.95% | 62.86 | -7.36 | 62 |
| 16 | AGRS | -40.88% | 374.09% | 40.58 | 0.9 | 94 |
| 17 | IMJS | -36.67% | 353.68% | 115.63 | 0.62 | 270 |
| 18 | MGLV | -26.73% | 342.08% | 10.12 | 2.71 | 151 |
| 19 | ATIC | -49.50% | 329.87% | 97.53 | -20.98 | 402 |
| 20 | OILS | -35.29% | 324.84% | 8.59 | 1.17 | 220 |
| 21 | CPRO | -34.74% | 260.26% | 191.08 | 1.21 | 63 |
| 22 | MLPT | -34.47% | 235.66% | 296.5 | 4.99 | 2430 |
| 23 | PCAR | -35.46% | 211.81% | 2.96 | 3.18 | 198 |
| 24 | BSIM | -28.00% | 194.50% | 148.24 | 1.74 | 625 |
| 25 | UVCR | -72.89% | 192.17% | 3.08 | 3.01 | 122 |
| 26 | WEHA | -48.74% | 191.03% | 6.06 | 1.33 | 105 |
| 27 | INPP | -37.23% | 172.47% | 8.46 | 0.88 | 408 |
| 28 | SAMF | -59.09% | 162.60% | 140.64 | 2.58 | 448 |
| 29 | ARTO | -57.34% | 161.82% | 28.92 | 11.43 | 6875 |
| 30 | PTSP | -32.14% | 141.70% | 4.1 | 9.4 | 4750 |
| 31 | HDIT | -72.65% | 136.90% | 2.11 | 0.4 | 90 |
| 32 | MLPL | -62.97% | 135.07% | 78.52 | 0.51 | 141 |
| 33 | SMRA | -28.14% | 134.57% | 254.61 | 1.11 | 600 |
| 34 | KARW | -42.34% | 124.44% | 4.34 | -0.09 | 79 |
| 35 | BVIC | -38.73% | 119.88% | 71.12 | 0.4 | 126 |
| 36 | BKSW | -43.23% | 109.07% | 52.47 | 0.55 | 110 |
| 37 | HOPE | -27.06% | 106.64% | 0.359 | 1.09 | 61 |
| 38 | BCIC | -30.58% | 105.32% | 15.72 | 0.99 | 145 |
| 39 | BEBS | -31.57% | 104.97% | 82.2 | 50.1 | 4020 |
| 40 | AMIN | -28.95% | 103.28% | 2.07 | 0.98 | 135 |
| 41 | RUNS | -48.19% | 102.39% | 0.105 | 2.07 | 154 |
| 79 | INPC | -33.07% | 91.19% | 39.84 | 0.43 | 86 |
| 43 | AKSI | -63.62% | 75.03% | 43.58 | 1.33 | 314 |
| 44 | BPFI | -56.25% | 70.19% | 26.71 | 1.76 | 630 |
| 62 | TOBA | -31.36% | 63.69% | 515.32 | 1.27 | 755 |
| 88 | BGTG | -59.23% | 59.18% | 5.58 | 0.71 | 95 |
| 47 | ASSA | -59.49% | 58.05% | 114.79 | 2.79 | 1335 |
| 48 | BMAS | -25.72% | 48.88% | 56.37 | 4.13 | 1285 |
| 49 | SMKL | -46.15% | 45.66% | 59.57 | 1.09 | 280 |
| 50 | MASA | -52.51% | 43.03% | 817.63 | 5.18 | 2790 |
| 51 | BPTR | -63.86% | 38.84% | 5.16 | 1.12 | 180 |
| 52 | BRAM | -28.80% | 38.50% | 217.34 | 1.29 | 9325 |
| 53 | YELO | -31.11% | 38.15% | 5.12 | 0.6 | 93 |
| 54 | WOOD | -37.50% | 36.75% | 299.89 | 0.86 | 555 |
| 55 | MARK | -43.72% | 32.14% | 205.09 | 3.04 | 590 |
| 57 | ALDO | -32.00% | 30.80% | 39.31 | 1.22 | 665 |
| 46 | MITI | -31.90% | 30.35% | 3.93 | 3.35 | 157 |
| 58 | GGRP | -25.64% | 25.70% | 413.61 | 0.61 | 570 |
| 59 | APEX | -56.47% | 19.66% | 31.95 | 0.52 | 370 |
| 60 | TRJA | -42.15% | 19.21% | 20.51 | 1.16 | 252 |
| 61 | LPIN | -65.45% | 19.00% | 12.31 | 0.6 | 408 |
| 76 | AMOR | -29.95% | 18.92% | 118.47 | 9.41 | 1305 |
| 63 | SOSS | -27.37% | 14.68% | 8.03 | 1.05 | 282 |
| 64 | UFOE | -71.57% | 14.40% | 5.49 | 5.71 | 482 |
| 65 | SLIS | -51.25% | 10.05% | 15.05 | 3.56 | 388 |
| 66 | HOMI | -35.42% | 7.43% | 0.673 | 6.86 | 492 |
| 67 | DNAR | -39.73% | 3.92% | 5.14 | 0.81 | 173 |
Ada 67 emiten yang cetak laba dan labanya naik < 20% tapi sahamnya malah crash. Itu artinya sama dengan 37,8% saham crash. Kalau perusahaan bisa cetak laba maka harusnya fundamental perusahaan tidak terlalu buruk. Mengapa tidak diapresiasi market?
Coba kita cek valuasinya. Apakah di bawah 1,5 sesuai valuasi Benjamin Graham?
Crash, Cetak Laba, Tumbuh, Tapi PBV >1,5
| No | Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga |
| 1 | BEBS | -31.57% | 104.97% | 82.2 | 50.1 | 4020 |
| 2 | ARTO | -57.34% | 161.82% | 28.92 | 11.43 | 6875 |
| 3 | AMOR | -29.95% | 18.92% | 118.47 | 9.41 | 1305 |
| 4 | PTSP | -32.14% | 141.70% | 4.1 | 9.4 | 4750 |
| 5 | BBHI | -46.69% | 556.93% | 150.62 | 7.31 | 2140 |
| 6 | HOMI | -35.42% | 7.43% | 0.673 | 6.86 | 492 |
| 7 | UFOE | -71.57% | 14.40% | 5.49 | 5.71 | 482 |
| 8 | MASA | -52.51% | 43.03% | 817.63 | 5.18 | 2790 |
| 9 | MLPT | -34.47% | 235.66% | 296.5 | 4.99 | 2430 |
| 10 | BMAS | -25.72% | 48.88% | 56.37 | 4.13 | 1285 |
| 11 | SLIS | -51.25% | 10.05% | 15.05 | 3.56 | 388 |
| 12 | MITI | -31.90% | 30.35% | 3.93 | 3.35 | 157 |
| 13 | PCAR | -35.46% | 211.81% | 2.96 | 3.18 | 198 |
| 14 | EMTK | -28.73% | 922.33% | 2704.9 | 3.04 | 1665 |
| 15 | MARK | -43.72% | 32.14% | 205.09 | 3.04 | 590 |
| 16 | AIMS | -38.81% | 391.24% | 2.49 | 3.03 | 242 |
| 17 | UVCR | -72.89% | 192.17% | 3.08 | 3.01 | 122 |
| 18 | ASSA | -59.49% | 58.05% | 114.79 | 2.79 | 1335 |
| 19 | MGLV | -26.73% | 342.08% | 10.12 | 2.71 | 151 |
| 20 | SAMF | -59.09% | 162.60% | 140.64 | 2.58 | 448 |
| 21 | RUNS | -48.19% | 102.39% | 0.105 | 2.07 | 154 |
| 22 | BPFI | -56.25% | 70.19% | 26.71 | 1.76 | 630 |
| 23 | BSIM | -28.00% | 194.50% | 148.24 | 1.74 | 625 |
| 24 | BABP | -37.63% | 629.21% | 34.88 | 1.53 | 117 |
Ada 24 emiten yang labanya naik tapi sayangnya PBV > 1,5.
BABP BSIM valuasinya sudah mendekati PBV 1,5. Sedangkan BEBS agak gila sih valuasinya PBV sampai 50,1 dan ARTO PBV 11,43. Wajar saja mengalami crash di 2022 karena valuasinya memang sudah mahal.
Crash Tapi Laba Naik dan PBV < 1,5. Apakah Calon Hidden Gems?
| No | Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga |
| 1 | ATIC | -49.50% | 329.87% | 97.53 | -20.98 | 402 |
| 2 | MYTX | -27.71% | 379.95% | 62.86 | -7.36 | 62 |
| 3 | KARW | -42.34% | 124.44% | 4.34 | -0.09 | 79 |
| 4 | BCIP | -28.26% | 608.40% | 7.23 | 0.21 | 65 |
| 5 | HDIT | -72.65% | 136.90% | 2.11 | 0.4 | 90 |
| 6 | BVIC | -38.73% | 119.88% | 71.12 | 0.4 | 126 |
| 7 | INPC | -33.07% | 91.19% | 39.84 | 0.43 | 86 |
| 8 | TOYS | -63.79% | 444.17% | 2.61 | 0.46 | 85 |
| 9 | PTIS | -39.89% | 1743.74% | 3.46 | 0.49 | 234 |
| 10 | GSMF | -47.20% | 501.15% | 3.13 | 0.49 | 85 |
| 11 | MLPL | -62.97% | 135.07% | 78.52 | 0.51 | 141 |
| 12 | APEX | -56.47% | 19.66% | 31.95 | 0.52 | 370 |
| 13 | BKSW | -43.23% | 109.07% | 52.47 | 0.55 | 110 |
| 14 | YELO | -31.11% | 38.15% | 5.12 | 0.6 | 93 |
| 15 | LPIN | -65.45% | 19.00% | 12.31 | 0.6 | 408 |
| 16 | GGRP | -25.64% | 25.70% | 413.61 | 0.61 | 570 |
| 17 | IMJS | -36.67% | 353.68% | 115.63 | 0.62 | 270 |
| 18 | BGTG | -59.23% | 59.18% | 5.58 | 0.71 | 95 |
| 19 | DNAR | -39.73% | 3.92% | 5.14 | 0.81 | 173 |
| 20 | ESIP | -29.13% | 2037.45% | 1.82 | 0.84 | 72 |
| 21 | WOOD | -37.50% | 36.75% | 299.89 | 0.86 | 555 |
| 22 | BUKA | -35.81% | 1221.52% | 8593.49 | 0.88 | 280 |
| 23 | INPP | -37.23% | 172.47% | 8.46 | 0.88 | 408 |
| 24 | AGRS | -40.88% | 374.09% | 40.58 | 0.9 | 94 |
| 25 | LUCK | -51.89% | 440.78% | 0.408 | 0.94 | 186 |
| 26 | AMIN | -28.95% | 103.28% | 2.07 | 0.98 | 135 |
| 27 | BCIC | -30.58% | 105.32% | 15.72 | 0.99 | 145 |
| 28 | POLI | -34.24% | 816.29% | 170.68 | 1.03 | 1000 |
| 29 | SOSS | -27.37% | 14.68% | 8.03 | 1.05 | 282 |
| 30 | HOPE | -27.06% | 106.64% | 0.359 | 1.09 | 61 |
| 31 | SMKL | -46.15% | 45.66% | 59.57 | 1.09 | 280 |
| 32 | SMRA | -28.14% | 134.57% | 254.61 | 1.11 | 600 |
| 33 | BPTR | -63.86% | 38.84% | 5.16 | 1.12 | 180 |
| 34 | TRJA | -42.15% | 19.21% | 20.51 | 1.16 | 252 |
| 35 | SBMA | -36.67% | 690.87% | 4.1 | 1.17 | 264 |
| 36 | OILS | -35.29% | 324.84% | 8.59 | 1.17 | 220 |
| 37 | CPRO | -34.74% | 260.26% | 191.08 | 1.21 | 63 |
| 38 | ALDO | -32.00% | 30.80% | 39.31 | 1.22 | 665 |
| 39 | TOBA | -31.36% | 63.69% | 515.32 | 1.27 | 755 |
| 40 | BRAM | -28.80% | 38.50% | 217.34 | 1.29 | 9325 |
| 41 | WEHA | -48.74% | 191.03% | 6.06 | 1.33 | 105 |
| 42 | AKSI | -63.62% | 75.03% | 43.58 | 1.33 | 314 |
| 43 | PGLI | -43.50% | 386.24% | 14.05 | 1.5 | 314 |
Ada 43 emiten yang memenuhi syarat atau ada sekitar 24% saja perusahaan yang tetap crash meskipun labanya tetap tumbuh dan valuasinya sudah tidak lagi terlalu mahal.
Sekarang coba persempit scope ke emiten yang laba naik >20% dan ekuitas positif sesuai saran William O’Neil.
Ekuitas Positif dan Laba Naik >20%
| No | Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga | |
| 1 | Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga | |
| 2 | BCIP | -28.26% | 608.40% | 7.23 | 0.21 | 65 | |
| 3 | BVIC | -38.73% | 119.88% | 71.12 | 0.4 | 126 | |
| 4 | HDIT | -72.65% | 136.90% | 2.11 | 0.4 | 90 | |
| 5 | INPC | -33.07% | 91.19% | 39.84 | 0.43 | 86 | |
| 6 | TOYS | -63.79% | 444.17% | 2.61 | 0.46 | 85 | |
| 7 | PTIS | -39.89% | 1743.74% | 3.46 | 0.49 | 234 | |
| 8 | GSMF | -47.20% | 501.15% | 3.13 | 0.49 | 85 | |
| 9 | MLPL | -62.97% | 135.07% | 78.52 | 0.51 | 141 | |
| 10 | BKSW | -43.23% | 109.07% | 52.47 | 0.55 | 110 | |
| 11 | YELO | -31.11% | 38.15% | 5.12 | 0.6 | 93 | |
| 12 | GGRP | -25.64% | 25.70% | 413.61 | 0.61 | 570 | |
| 13 | IMJS | -36.67% | 353.68% | 115.63 | 0.62 | 270 | |
| 14 | BGTG | -59.23% | 59.18% | 5.58 | 0.71 | 95 | |
| 15 | ESIP | -29.13% | 2037.45% | 1.82 | 0.84 | 72 | |
| 16 | WOOD | -37.50% | 36.75% | 299.89 | 0.86 | 555 | |
| 17 | BUKA | -35.81% | 1221.52% | 8593.49 | 0.88 | 280 | |
| 18 | INPP | -37.23% | 172.47% | 8.46 | 0.88 | 408 | |
| 19 | AGRS | -40.88% | 374.09% | 40.58 | 0.9 | 94 | |
| 20 | LUCK | -51.89% | 440.78% | 0.408 | 0.94 | 186 | |
| 21 | AMIN | -28.95% | 103.28% | 2.07 | 0.98 | 135 | |
| 22 | BCIC | -30.58% | 105.32% | 15.72 | 0.99 | 145 | |
| 23 | POLI | -34.24% | 816.29% | 170.68 | 1.03 | 1000 | |
| 24 | SMKL | -46.15% | 45.66% | 59.57 | 1.09 | 280 | |
| 25 | HOPE | -27.06% | 106.64% | 0.359 | 1.09 | 61 | |
| 26 | SMRA | -28.14% | 134.57% | 254.61 | 1.11 | 600 | |
| 27 | BPTR | -63.86% | 38.84% | 5.16 | 1.12 | 180 | |
| 28 | OILS | -35.29% | 324.84% | 8.59 | 1.17 | 220 | |
| 29 | SBMA | -36.67% | 690.87% | 4.1 | 1.17 | 264 | |
| 30 | CPRO | -34.74% | 260.26% | 191.08 | 1.21 | 63 | |
| 31 | ALDO | -32.00% | 30.80% | 39.31 | 1.22 | 665 | |
| 32 | TOBA | -31.36% | 63.69% | 515.32 | 1.27 | 755 | |
| 33 | BRAM | -28.80% | 38.50% | 217.34 | 1.29 | 9325 | |
| 34 | AKSI | -63.62% | 75.03% | 43.58 | 1.33 | 314 | |
| 35 | WEHA | -48.74% | 191.03% | 6.06 | 1.33 | 105 | |
| 36 | PGLI | -43.50% | 386.24% | 14.05 | 1.5 | 314 |
Yang memenuhi syarat ada 36 emiten.
Sekarang persempit lagi scope nya untuk perusahaan yang laba > 100 miliar dan PBV < 1.
Laba 100 Miliar, PBV < 0.75
| Saham | Return YTD 2022 | Growth Laba 2022 | Laba (Milyar) | PBV | Harga |
| IMJS | -36.67% | 353.68% | 115.63 | 0.62 | 270 |
| GGRP | -25.64% | 25.70% | 413.61 | 0.61 | 570 |
| WOOD | -37.50% | 36.75% | 299.89 | 0.86 | 555 |
| BUKA | -35.81% | 1221.52% | 8593.49 | 0.88 | 280 |
Dan ternyata hanya 4 emiten yang masuk dalam screening.
Sekarang 4 emiten ini mari cek NPM, OPM dan GPM nya. Cari yang GPM >10% dan konsisten.
| Saham | Harga | GPM (TTM) | OPM (TTM) | NPM (TTM) | GPM (Q2) | OPM (Q2) | NPM (Q2) |
| IMJS | 272 | 40.60% | 15.71% | 1.87% | 43.93% | 15.51% | 3.33% |
| WOOD | 525 | 36.75% | 16.16% | 9.63% | 38.98% | 13.02% | 8.04% |
| GGRP | 570 | 12.39% | 10.66% | 7.57% | 7.77% | 8.23% | 5.45% |
| BUKA | 274 | 44.85% | 284.52% | 285.05% | 27.56% | -643.83% | -659.54% |
Yang ideal adalah GPM OPM NPM Q lebih besar dari GPM OPM dan NPM TTM. Karena kalau lebih tinggi itu artinya ada perbaikan margin.
Dari 4 saham di atas yang menurut saya hidden gems adalah IMJS. Let’s see. Apakah perusahaan ini akan diapresiasi lagi oleh market.
Kesimpulan
Dari riset yang saya lakukan terhadap 177 emiten yang harga sahamnya crash di 2022 saya menemukan bahwa:
- 76% saham yang crash di 2022 memiliki beberapa ciri berikut:
- Labanya anjlok
- Merugi
- Ekuitas minus
- Overvalued
- Hanya ada sekitar 24% emiten yang mengalami crash meskipun secara valuasi sudah tidak terlalu mahal dan konsisten cetak pertumbuhan laba.
Jadi kalau tidak ingin terkena crash, maka sebaiknya hindari perusahaan yang Rugi, laba anjlok, dan overvalued.
I am Not a Professional Financial Analyst and Advisor. Instrumen saham dan kripto adalah investasi yang beresiko tinggi. Resiko duit hilang 100% tetap ada. So be wise. Keputusan Jual dan Beli ada di Tangan Masing-masing.
Bila ingin mendaftar menjadi member Pintarsaham.id bisa hubungi Admin Pintarsaham.id via WA +62 831-1918-1386
Untuk mengetahui Data Kepemilikan Saham di bawah 5% maka bisa daftar gratis di link ini
Jika anda menyukai artikel ini jangan lupa untuk berlangganan di Youtube Channel Pintar Saham dan nantikan video edukasi tentang saham di channel tersebut. Jangan lupa melihat Facebook Fan Page Pintar Saham Indonesia dan Instagram Pintar Saham @pintarsaham.id
Disclaimer :
Penyebutan nama saham (jika ada) tidak bermaksud untuk memberikan penilaian bagus buruk, atau pun rekomendasi jual beli atau tahan untuk saham tertentu. Tujuan pemberian contoh adalah untuk menunjukkan fakta yang menguatkan opini penulis. Kinerja Masa Lalu tidak menjadi jaminan akan kembali terulang pada masa yang akan datang. Semua data dan hasil pengolahan data diambil dari sumber yang dianggap terpercaya dan diolah dengan usaha terbaik. Meski demikian, penulis tidak menjamin kebenaran sumber data. Data dan hasil pengolahan data dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa adanya pemberitahuan. Seluruh tulisan, komentar dan tanggapan atas komentar merupakan opini pribadi.
